Reviewing The GOP Primary Debate 23/08/23

The first GOP primary debate took place with one elephant not in the room and the wild card of the Republican primaries turning dull debate into entertainment.

The first GOP Primary debate took place and with it begins the slow intravenous drip feed of political nightmare fuel as we wearily crawl into 2024. This election cycle the GOP can probably at least say they have better candidate quality than they have at the previous two outings but no by much. Everyone on the debate stage is banking on a few things. Critically they need the DNC to run Biden despite the fact he is clearly unfit for office. Even the worst the Republicans have to offer can run rings round a man who can no longer speak in coherent sentences or tackle a flight of stairs. Another is that Trump, absent from the debates, falls afoul of one of the many legal battles he faces or that something comes to light that is so catastrophic for his image that the huge but honestly meaningless polling lead he enjoys erodes as November 2024 approaches. The fear among the candidates is that the GOP somehow become bewildered by those numbers in such a way they decide to back Trump again, a path to sure defeat.

For Trump his non-attendance serves two purposes. The first is that he gets to behave as if he’s an incumbent, a tacit reinforcement of the notion that there was anything more than efficient ballot-harvesting at play in his election loss. “Why would I need to debate anyone” he has said “Everyone knows my record.” For many Trump acolytes this is more than enough and they see no problem with agreeing with this stance and then tweeting about how Biden won’t debate because he’s scared. Which brings us to the second point… By not being there Trump spares himself the prospect of humiliation in front of a base who he clearly doesn’t believe would offer unyielding support. In 2016 the other candidates left it too late to form temporary alliances to humiliate Trump and instead had to watch the political equivalent of a Friday 13^th movie as Trump Vorhees cut them down one by one with withering nicknames and attacks usually outside the boundaries of play. Surely in 2020, with Trump facing dozens of criminal charges and no longer a friend to FOX News, they wouldn’t make that mistake again. No, the tables would be very much turned this time around and Trump knows it. It’s truer now than ever that there is a Republican party and a Trump party and the rift between them is growing daily.

So disinterested in the notion of “party” Trump even sought to overshadow the debates themselves by participating in a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson, released on X at the exact same time as the primary debate took place. It was what you would expect, a long-winded, rambling repeat of his greatest hits, some of which are classics and some of which shouldn’t even have been b-sides. In summary Biden appears ill, Epstein probably did kill himself, the Biden family are crooked, his presidency avoided a nuclear war with North Korea, the invasion of Ukraine would never have happened if he was still president, America gave away the Panama Canal, you don’t even get water in your washing machines anymore, Mike Pence got bad advice on election day… You will notice that there’s no policy talk in the entire thing because Trump’s campaign isn’t about that. More than anything else it’s about proving to the world he is STILL president, that 2020 was an abberation and he won’t get fooled this time… All the while his campaign presents him with a means to raise money while he fights off indictments. The Trump money machine never stopped printing, truly proving there’s a sucker born every minute. It’s got so bad that the Trump campaign has hilariously created an official Trump seal of approval so supporters know the correct grift to donate to.

Maybe there’s some merit in a more detailed review of the Tucker and Trump session, although putting it generously it was hardly Frost / Nixon. The reality is these days if you’ve heard one Trump interview you’ve heard them all. His media appearances now are so carefully curated that he is close to emulating the Hidin’ Biden strategy, taking only questions from adoring mouths and pushing out repetitive answers to believing ears. In that regard you could say that Trump may have finally mastered the art of politics. The image of an iconoclastic candidate was always part fiction but now he sounds like all the others, soundbites in a suit and tie

Before we get to assessing the performances let’s just dismiss those whose campaign is dead on arrival. Who even are Asa Hutchinson and Doug Burgum. Do you know? Does anyone? What a waste of everyone’s time it is for them to even be there. Tim Scott too is just so predictably dull when it comes to campaigning… All appeals to the faith based crowd and those who believe in bootstrapping. He also is a black Republican who largely refuses to address that fact, which would acknowledged as a positive almost anywhere else in the world but in the hellscape of American politics is definitely detrimental to his electoral chances for anything. Scott has the homely (British meaning my American friends) South Carolina charm but he always panders too much to large crowds. Too much time trying to be relatable and not enough on the issues. You can only say you stand for “conservative values” in so many ways before people get bored.

Chris Christie, looking like a satirist’s drawing of greed personified, is low key running the funniest campaign out of all of them. It’s just like Rick ‘N’ Morty though… You have to be wicked smart to get it. You see the joke is his entire campaign is handwringing about a return to decency, muh norms if you will, and that Trump must be prosecuted and cast out of the Republican party. He has unironically called Trump Voldemort. Yet the reality is he was a slut for Trump in 2016 and right the way through to the very last day of his presidency when Christie got one of his colleagues, George Gilmore, a presidential pardon for his conviction for tax fraud. The day Trump left office suddenly he was a good old-fashioned, principled Republican… High comedy. And true to that form he did provide some funny barbs on stage, like saying Vivek sounded like ChatGPT and even promised to release the truth about UFOs but that was it. It’s only a matter of time before he turns himself into a pickle and people get bored.

Pence’s campaign is also dead but he is worth talking about despite that. Pence is a walking anachronism, the kind of Republican that won’t exist in twenty years. A sensible silver haircut, fervent devotion to a kooky offshoot of Christianity and filled with the type of benign bigotry you forgive in your grandparents. His “hate the sin, love the sinner” approach to social issues leaves him hopelessly adrift in the culture war where even the side he’s supposed to be on has eschewed some of the traditions he wants to preserve. He’s also spent the past three years being Trump’s preferred punching bag, which seems egregious in light of Trump supporters chanting that Pence should be hanged for not rejecting certified votes, something he had no constitutional or legal authority to do. In the bizarro world of Trump’s orbit Pence has become a villain that ranks alongside Clinton, Mueller and Fauci, an ignominious legacy for a man that undoubtedly kept Trump on the tracks at times of his presidency.

His debate performance was as lackluster as you’d expect from a man who probably self-flagellates in private. This was typified by one response to debate standout Vivek Ramaswamy who had given an accurate detailing that the mental health epidemic in America had multiple contributing factors, a key one of which is people requiring purpose and direction. He said it was a national identity crisis. Pence of course came in as forcefully as he ever allows himself. “We don’t have a national identity crisis” he droned. “We’re not looking for a new national identity. The American people are the most faith-filled, freedom loving, idealistic, hard-working people the world has ever known. We just need government as good as our people.” While these words could have been lifted almost verbatim from Reagan’s speechwriters, it is a different time, a different world and it’s time for America to deal with the realities that face them instead of desperately pining for a bygone era that can never be achieved and was far from a utopia to begin with. It’s politics of the past and that’s where Pence will be consigned to come the end of the primary cycle. Democrats hate him because of who he is, Trumpists hate him because of what he didn’t do and traditional Republicans like him but know he can’t win. He’s not a serious candidate.

Nikki Haley did fine but I don’t understand some of the gushing praise that was coming from media outlets. She was proudly hawkish on the war in Ukraine and continued to push this idea that it’s a first line of defence for America. She claimed Putin had said “Poland was next” if he took Ukraine, which is actually a quote attributable to Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of Chechnya. She is right that Putin is a murderer and a thug but I doubt very much the messaging of “we need to fight wars to stop war” is going to play well with a younger generation who don’t admire the USA’s role as world police nor a generation of working class parent seeing their children come home in boxes draped in flags. Her solution to the failings of the educational system was to “get kids to read.” Her standout moment for me was the pragmatic answer she gave on the abortion topic which continues to be something America really should have figured the fuck out a long time ago. It showed a rare glint of compassion on the matter from any Republican and, as the sole woman on the stage, that shouldn’t shock you. Her appeals to women and quotes like “if you want something done ask a woman,” seemingly a book plug more than anything else, generally don’t play out so well with Republican voters but, of course, the times are a changing. Her campaign will run longer than most and she’s going to take down a few of her colleagues along the way.

Ron DeSantis’s campaign so far has been anything other than bombastic. It’s still hard to get over his announcement on, as it was then, Twitter. What should have been evidence of a new tech-savvy breed of Republican, keen to circumnavigate the biased mainstream media outlets, instead turned into an embarrassing boomer conference call. Garbled audio, crashes, people kicked out of the app when they joined the space… Anyone who knows anything about Twitter knows that “Spaces” was added as an afterthought and is developmentally undercooked. It took 25 minutes of impromptu tech support before DeSantis could get the words out that he was going to run.

However if you put a microphone in front of him you can usually rely on him to talk a good game. On this debate stage he was just okay by his usual standards but still probably the second best speaker on the night. Yes, he did do the creepy smile thing and seemed to struggled with knowing when to react to a cue from the moderators. He did rely on canned soundbites and constantly answered questions no-one asked. But this is all mostly new territory and you have to believe he’ll be much better second time around. Even with a disappointing performance he still managed some standouts, particularly on addressing the crime in large US cities and how he would go after partisan district attorneys that refuse to prosecute crimes along political lines. That’s either music to your ears or terrifying but I know enough about the world to know that messaging, as well as him being able to point to a 50 year low in crime rates in Florida, will play well with residents who spend their evenings bolted indoors and have to tell their children to get into the bathtub every time a gunshot rings out.

It’s telling that for all the reporting about how he “bombed” the criticism mostly amounts to he simply wasn’t impressive enough. It’s also telling that when it came to using the old media “we’re just factchecking” trick, the best they could do for his claims was to point out he was never a Navy SEAL something he absolutely did not say. Better luck next time Tristan.

When it comes to media coverage of DeSantis and even polling numbers that make it seem he’s a million miles from Trump you have to remember this it is all deception by design. The DNC need Trump to run in the presidential but run so steeped in scandal you’ll take four more years of a dementia patient who sold access to the highest levels of government to get rich. Pope Biden would be favourable to President Tump and that appears true empirically and anecdotally. Those same data points strongly suggest if DeSantis goes to the presidential he beats Biden. Before you even get to policy he has enough ticks in the Republican voter checkboxes. He’s a veteran, he’s a family man, he’s a Christian, he even understands enough of the culture war bullshit people spend their time on in lieu of engaging with actual politics. Now add to this his Florida governor’s record. His refusal to enforce vaccine mandates and other Covid protocols has aged better than the thoughts of those who called him “Death Santis” especially at a time when paranoia is creeping in about the Biden administration’s intentions should a new strain arrive in Winter. A refusal to play nice with Disney, a major corporation will also be a plus in the eyes of the people who think “go woke, go broke” is a universal truth just because it rhymes. If the party rightly gets off the Trump train he will be the nominee. Ignore the headlines which are there to demoralise DeSantis supporters and little else. The DNC want Trump, the media want Trump, there’s too much money being left on the table if he doesn’t run again. Screeching hysteria sells.

And so to the words I’d never thought I’d type in this election cycle. You now have to take Vivek Ramaswamy seriously. At just 38 and with no political experience many had backed him to flounder as established politicians ridiculed some of his more grandiose statements and ideas. Instead, his vim and vigor, combined with an absolute refusal to sit on the fence on anything, made him the most riveting person in attendance.

If you’ve not been following his campaign you won’t understand the significance of him being the beau of the ball. A little over 3 weeks ago he was being laughed at by nearly everyone for his claim on CNN that he would win in a landslide if he was the nominee. He was polling at 5% at the time. He’s also somehow turned a political own-goal, briefly speculating about government involvement in the September 11^th attacks, into a win somehow despite even lying about being misquoted. The media are so busted as an institution, with so many partisan lies being told, the public love to see them get dunked on even when they’re accurate. He makes the same points Trump did about how he’s not a career politician and just wants to help America but comes without any of Trump’s baggage. In a fucked up way he’s the closest thing the GOP has had to an Obama.

He dominated the debate stage and only Haley was able to score points off him. Early doors he just threw out “I’m the only person on this stage who isn’t bought and paid for” and it’s hard to argue. Watch back the clip of the other Republican hopefuls interrupting him with faux outrage and then being unable to refute the statement in any meaningful way. It’s gold. You’ll even ignore he said that as a build-up to talking about the “anti-carbon” agenda, bonkers given the Summer we’re living through. He knew no Republican can hit him with “so you’re denying climate change” given their own political histories so he got to have his cake and eat it on the issue. He then destroyed Christie by pointing out his campaign was run on the exact same twin fuel of vengeance and grievance as Trump’s before throwing in “I’m not running for president of MSNBC” a network Christie has frequently appeared on now he’s one of their “good Republicans” for fifteen minutes.

Every answer he delivered came loaded with his policy ideas. Be they good or bad in your opinion he clearly explained what he intended to do, which is a lot more than most manage in these debates. When he spoke about fixing education policy he said he’d shut down the department of education, smash the teacher’s unions, give the money to parents and make American highschoolers pass a civics exam before they were recognised as citizens. That’s what they do in Starship Troopers for fucks sake.

Even as he spews crazy ideas and invective God help me I can’t help but like the guy on some level. Maybe that’s just because of the setting and how he is holding career politicians feet to the fire. Maybe it’s because it’s just good to hear about ideas for the future of America from someone who isn’t mummified. Maybe I’m as crazy as he is. Whatever the reason I’m glad Vivek’s there otherwise this would have been a DeSantis led snoozefest. We all know America’s elections are just slick popularity contests with banana republic mechanics in the background, so for now I’m all in on a wild card taking a flamethrower to the pomp of the proceedings.

It’s also worth noting that even as Ramaswamy runs against Trump he has maintained a position of calling Trump “the best president of the 21^st century” and kissing his ass at every opportunity. We all know that’s all you have to do to get a prominent role in Trump’s administration… I mean fuck it, Trump’s wild enough to put Ramaswamy on the ticket as veep and while they’d lose it’d propel Vivek so far up the Republican food chain who knows what could happen next. Almost everything so far about Ramaswamy seems cynical, calculated and flamboyant. That’s how you win in politics. Don’t take my word for it. The post-debate polling has him as the clear winner at nearly every outlet. He was already up to 9% coming in, which was about 4 points ahead of Pence for example, so who knows. I’m not mad enough to think he can win but he appears to be about as much fun as this sorry business can get so here’s hoping he sticks around.